Mall Vacancies Grow as Retailers Pack Up Shop

Shopping Venues See Uninhabited Rate Reach 8%, But Not All Is Bad in Commercial Sector as Apartment Rents Rise

Vacancy rates at U.S. malls and shopping centers continued their steep rise in the third quarter as slumping sales forced retailers to close stores.

Malls are seeing their highest vacancy rate since 2001, according to data released by real-estate-research firm Reis Inc. For shopping centers, the rate is the highest since 1994.

In contrast, the apartment market, particularly Philadelphia apartments, remained one of the most healthy real-estate markets in the third quarter, benefiting from the struggling home-sales market. Many would-be buyers, unable to get mortgages or worried about the darkening economy, are renting apartments instead.

In the top 79 U.S. markets, apartments posted a slight increase in the vacancy rate to 6.1%, up from 6% from the previous quarter, and a rise in rents of roughly half a percentage point, according to Reis.

Shopping centers and apartment buildings fall in the category of commercial real estate, which has fared better in the credit crisis than residential. Until recently, most commercial landlords had struggled with the financing drought, but the so-called "fundamentals" of their properties -- vacancy rate, rent and expenses -- remained healthy.

Now that is changing. In the retail sector, vacancy rates have climbed and rent increases have slowed for the past year. The vacancy rate at malls in the top 76 U.S. markets rose to 6.6% in the third quarter, up from 6.3% in the previous quarter, to its highest level since late 2001, according to Reis.

For strip centers and other open-air shopping venues, the vacancy rate climbed to 8.4% in the third quarter from 8.1% in the second quarter. That marks the highest rate since 1994, according to Reis. Meanwhile, retailers' closures outpaced new leases by 2.8 million square feet in U.S. strip centers in the third quarter, the third consecutive quarterly net decline. It is the first nine-month period of so-called negative net absorption since Reis started tracking the data in 1980.

The combined vacancy rate for malls and strip centers in the third quarter was 8%, up from 7.8% in the second quarter. Vacancy tends to be higher in strip centers during economic slowdowns because they have more independent, local tenants, which are more vulnerable to drops in sales than are the national retailers found in malls.

Still, the economic slump has taken its toll on national retailers. Among those that have closed stores in recent months are Starbucks Corp., Dillard's Inc. and Linens 'n Things Inc. More closures likely are on tap, as retailers such as Circuit City Stores Inc. struggle with dwindling sales.

"Almost every retailer has slowed their expansion by 50% to 70% for 2008," said David Brinbrey, chairman and chief executive of the Shopping Center Group, an Atlanta retail brokerage.

Retail landlords are hurt directly by slumping sales because many of them have leases that, in addition to base rent, give them a small portion of payments based on the tenant's sales growth. And retailers feeling the pinch from the shopping slowdown increasingly are asking for rent concessions.

Landlords have little choice but to give breaks to solid tenants. "Chances are, if they're a good merchant, we're going to work with them to get them through this bad time. There's no reason to have an empty space," said Rick Caruso, chief executive of Caruso Affiliated, which owns 10 high-end shopping centers in Southern California.

Sam Chandan, Reis's chief economist, noted that the growing weakness of retailers can be seen in the decline of retail jobs, which have fallen by more than 250,000 nationally in the past year. "Apart from declines in automobile dealers and parts sellers, the last month's declines are broad-based, including department stores, food and beverage retailers, furniture, and electronic and appliance stores," Mr. Chandan said.In the apartment sector, the vacancy increase has been more gradual. But the scarcity of job opportunities for recent college graduates has sapped a primary customer base for apartments, analysts say. And some people who are losing their jobs are moving in with family and friends.

Some foresee rent increases stalling or declining in the coming months as other economic indicators sour. "As unemployment rises, it will be harder for these [apartment] companies to push rent in terms of renewals and new leases," said Michelle Ko, an analyst with UBS Securities LLC.

Analysts report strong apartment occupancy and rent growth in markets including San Francisco, Boston, San Diego and the Pacific Northwest. Rents and occupancy have suffered in boom-bust markets such as Phoenix and Orlando, Fla. But some previously strong apartment markets, namely New York and Charlotte, N.C., might suffer from the loss of financial jobs amid the banking shakeout.

By: Kris Hudson
Wall Street Journal; October 6, 2008

Philadelphia's Commercial and Apartment Rental Markets Red Hot

The Lofts at Logan View pictured to the left. One of Center City Philadelphia's most popular residential addresses.

Philadelphia's commercial real-estate and apartment leasing market is holding steady in the midst of the growing economic carnage. Philadelphia's office market, more than the suburbs', has benefited from a steady growth mixed with very little supply.
Historic Landmarks reports that their Philadelphia Apartments have one of the lowest vacancy rates in years. Apartment, retail and warehouse vacancies are at or below averages for the 54 major metro areas as recently audited and surveyed by Real Capital Analytics, a New York-based research firm.
To be sure, the geographic proximity of the region to the crisis on Wall Street -- with Philadelphia about two hours south of Manhattan, give or take -- is a concern among some Philly area's real-estate professionals. As with most markets globally, sales of retail and apartment buildings have slowed since the credit crunch began in the summer of 2007, however the market for Philadelphia apartments remains red hot.

The Philadelphia metro area, home to about 5.1 million people, saw continued growth in its education and health-services sector. And so far overall job growth has remained in the positive territory as of July compared with the year-earlier period, albeit just barely at 0.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

For now, the new luxury lofts and urban condo style apartments offered by Historic Landmarks are at or near capacity with many waiting lists forming. Historic Landmarks has medical student apartments and grad student apartments in some of Philadelphia's most in-demand neighborhoods. Historic offers lofts and Center City apartments, Parkway apartments, University City apartments and Old City apartments.


Many Philadelphia apartment brokers have been asking for rents in the Manhattan-esque $40-per-square-foot range which still seems a little too rich for the City of Brotherly Love.
Historic landmarks apartment buildings and historic building renovation and preservation projects remain true to the city's past architectural leanings and Philadelphia's great historical past. Demand is high for urban living in luxury lofts and upscale Philadelphia apartments.


To Tour any of our Philadelphia apartments and historic buildings in downtown Philadelphia call: 877-563-6754.

City's Property Market, at Least, Defies Curse

Some sports fans in Philadelphia feel their teams are victim of a real-estate curse.

That is because none of the city's major professional teams -- the Phillies, Flyers, Eagles and 76ers -- have won a championship since before 1987, when Malvern, Pa.-based Liberty Property Trust's One Liberty Place rose above a statue of William Penn that tops City Hall. Mr. Penn's hat previously set the bar for the city's skyline.

The American Commerce Center, shown in renderings, would change the look of Philadelphia's skyline.

Fortunately, Mr. Penn doesn't seem to have focused his chagrin on the real-estate market.

So far the Philadelphia area's commercial real-estate leasing market has held steady in the midst of the growing economic carnage. The city's office market, more than the suburbs', has benefited from "steady, unspectacular growth married with little supply," says John Gattuso, senior vice president and regional director of Liberty's urban development group.

While the metropolitan area's office vacancies rose to 14.5% in the second quarter (and rents are expected to decline slightly in the second half of the year), they are still below the national average of 15.6%, according to Boston-based Property & Portfolio Research, a real-estate research firm. Apartment, retail and warehouse vacancies rose in the second quarter but held at or below averages for the 54 major metro areas surveyed by PPR, while rents were still rising in all but the retail sector.

To be sure, the geographic proximity of the region to the crisis on Wall Street -- with Philadelphia about two hours south of Manhattan, give or take -- is a concern among the area's real-estate professionals. As with most markets globally, sales of office, retail and apartment buildings have slowed since the credit crunch began in the summer of 2007, although sales of office buildings valued at $5 million or more this year through August fell just 14% compared with last year's period. That is better than a 77% drop nationwide over the period, according to Real Capital Analytics, a New York-based research firm.

The Philadelphia metro area, home to about 5.1 million people, saw continued growth in its education and health-services sector. And so far overall job growth has remained in the positive territory as of July compared with the year-earlier period, albeit just barely at 0.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

For now, the new 975-foot-tall glass-encased Comcast Center tower that officially opened this year seems to reflect the market's strengths. Designed by Robert A.M. Stern Architects, the building has created a buzz with a 25-foot tall high-definition video screen in its lobby.

The building also has leased all of its roughly 1.2 million square feet of office space, much of it as the new headquarters of cable giant Comcast Corp., says Liberty Property's Mr. Gattuso. It has also done so despite skepticism early on from some brokers who said asking rents in the $40-per-square-foot range were too rich for the City of Brotherly Love, Mr. Gattuso said.

That success may be encouraging other developers. One project planned near the Comcast Center is the American Commerce Center. If built, it would rise about 1,500 feet high and include office, hotel and retail space, according to Peter Kelsen, an attorney for Philadelphia-based Hill International Real Estate Partners LP, which is developing the project.

Citing Hill's joint-venture relationship with a large pension fund, Mr. Kelsen said he's confident the group will have the financing. Developers also need some preleasing commitments and for the city to remove a height limit on the property, he says.

The scale is just one of the project's striking elements. New York firm Kohn Pedersen Fox Associates' design includes a glass facade and futuristic-looking cutouts as well as a lower section that abuts a higher tower that together look something like a chair. "It's not going to be very colonial," Mr. Kelsen says, referencing the city's past architectural leanings.

There's even hope that the tall-building curse may soon vanish. The new Comcast Center gave a nod to Mr. Penn by welding a small statue of the city's founder to one of its beams.

By: Maura Webber Sadovi
Wall Street Journal; September 24, 2008